10 min read
Key takeaways
- Headline rev-share percent is not the cost of the deal.
- Negative carryover decides who holds the bonus disasters.
- A CPA deal can be dearer than rev-share once D30 quality is in the table.
- Hybrid without a written floor is two deals arguing.
- Value the partner on NGR after quality filters, not on last month's FTDs.
Rev-share versus CPA versus hybrid
CPA buys the FTD and leaves you the tail. Rev-share rents the tail to the partner. Hybrid tries to cap your downside on month one and still pay for the tail. All three can be rational. None of them are rational if the FTD was a bonus clearer.
| CPA €45 | Rev-share 30% | Hybrid €20 + 20% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 NGR per FTD | €28 | €28 | €28 |
| Month 1 cost | €45 | €8.40 | €25.60 |
| Months 2–6 NGR | €55 | €55 | €55 |
| Months 2–6 cost | €0 | €16.50 | €11 |
| Total cost | €45 | €24.90 | €36.60 |
Net NGR after deal cost (month 1–6 NGR €83): CPA keeps €38 after the €45 media-equivalent; rev-share keeps €58.10; hybrid keeps €46.40. On this player, rev-share wins. On a player who dies at D3 with €8 NGR, CPA at €45 is a disaster and rev-share is a shrug. The deal must be priced on the mix you actually get, which is why affiliate management starts with quality, not with recruitment.
What negative carryover is for
Without negative carryover, a partner who dumps bonus-heavy junk in March and a few whales in April keeps April. You keep March. That is a one-way option against the operator. Carryover says the March hole follows the partner into April. It is not cruelty. It is how rev-share remains a share of a real business.
If a partner refuses carryover, price them as CPA or walk. The insertion order should say the rule. Slack is not a contract.
Worked mix, 100 FTDs
60 junk FTDs at €6 D30 NGR, 40 decent FTDs at €90 D30 NGR. Blended D30 NGR = €39.60.
- CPA €40: you pay €4,000, keep €3,960 NGR, gap −€40 plus bonus not even counted.
- Rev-share 35% with carryover: you pay 35% of €3,960 = €1,386, keep €2,574. Survivable if bonus is inside NGR.
- Rev-share 35% without carryover, if junk and decent sit in different months: the partner can isolate the whales. Your blended model dies.
The table on the page is the argument. Volume screenshots are not.
Where this meets media CPA
If paid media's honest target is €46 from the month-three CPA piece, an affiliate CPA of €55 is not 'performance'. It is a more expensive square. Align the two or admit affiliates are a brand-bid tax.
Further: How to set a target CPA that still works in month three and the attribution and analytics service.